Selecting the ideal trade-off between reliability and cost associated with a fault tolerant architecture generally involves an extensive design space exploration. Employing state-of-the-art reliability estimation methods makes this exploration un-scalable with the design complexity. In this paper we introduce a low-cost reliability analysis methodology that helps taking this key decision with less computational effort and orders of magnitude faster. Based on this methodology we also propose a selective hardening technique using a hybrid fault tolerant architecture that allows meeting the soft-error rate constraints within a given design cost-budget and vice versa. Our experimental validation shows that the methodology offers huge gain (1200 ×) in terms of computational effort in comparison with fault injection-based reliability estimation method and produces results within acceptable error limits.