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Journal articles
Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting
Abstract : The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika- related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting.
Cited literature [91 references]
https://hal-lirmm.ccsd.cnrs.fr/lirmm-02021529
Contributor : Isabelle Gouat Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Saturday, February 16, 2019 - 10:18:44 AM
Last modification on : Monday, October 11, 2021 - 1:24:08 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Friday, May 17, 2019 - 4:24:08 PM
Contributor : Isabelle Gouat Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Saturday, February 16, 2019 - 10:18:44 AM
Last modification on : Monday, October 11, 2021 - 1:24:08 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Friday, May 17, 2019 - 4:24:08 PM
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elife-29820-v2.pdf
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Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License