Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting

Abstract : The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika- related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting.
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José Lourenço, Maricelia Maia de Lima, Nuno Rodrigues Faria, Andrew Walker, Moritz Kraemer, et al.. Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting. eLife, eLife Sciences Publication, 2017, 6, pp.e29820. ⟨10.7554/eLife.29820⟩. ⟨lirmm-02021529⟩

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