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Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting

Abstract : The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika- related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting.
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José Lourenço, Maricelia Maia de Lima, Nuno Rodrigues Faria, Andrew Walker, Moritz U G Kraemer, et al.. Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting. eLife, eLife Sciences Publication, 2017, 6, pp.e29820. ⟨10.7554/eLife.29820⟩. ⟨lirmm-02021529⟩

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